At the start of the pandemic, Brazil took a beating. It was unable to buy all the ventilators and equipment it wanted from China. The U.S. snapped up everything money could buy. Other wealthy countries got the scraps. We didn’t get much.
When it came to vaccines, however, Brazil surprised everyone.
Brazil in the vaccine queue
Anyone would bet that Brazil would end up at the back of the line. Ahead of Africa, perhaps, because we’re not quite that poor. But certainly not in the front of the pack.
Surprisingly, what do we have? As of today, 8 million doses. Perhaps not much compared to our population. But it’s a huge amount when compared to the competition.
The U.S. economy is 15 times larger than ours, and they’ve received only 70 million doses (9 times more).
China is 10 times richer, but has received only 5 times as many doses.
The United Kingdom’s economy is twice the size of ours and has secured just over twice as many doses as we have.
India is twice as wealthy as Brazil and received twice as many doses.
Brazil received more doses than Italy, Austria, France, Spain, Germany, and Mexico.
For a country with a large population, Brazil isn’t doing too badly. It compares well with India and China—and even with the U.S.—even though we’re poorer than they are.
How was that possible?
A vaccine is like military equipment. Remember when Brazil spent years negotiating to decide which fighter jet to buy? The government even announced that it would be the French one, but in the end, the army bought the Swedish Gripen.
It’s the same with the vaccine. A pharmaceutical company in a certain country produces it. But it can only sell to other countries if the government of the country where it’s located approves it. Otherwise, the production is confiscated.
Furthermore, the purchase hasn’t been made between companies, but directly between a pharmaceutical company and governments. It’s an official purchase, made by the federal government and subject to the usual bureaucratic procedures.
Brazil was shrewd
By leveraging its good relations with India, it was able to secure doses from there.
With limited bargaining power against China, it also secured several doses of the Chinese vaccine.
Research centers in São Paulo and Minas Gerais are developing their own vaccines.
As a result, Brazil gained bargaining power against Pfizer in an effort to circumvent contractual clauses imposed on several countries.
Contract with Pfizer
The most serious clauses requested by Pfizer are:
Guarantee regarding Brazilian assets abroad: assets would be frozen.
Liability waiver for delivery delays.
Liability waiver for side effects.
Why is the geopolitics of vaccines important?
Studies on the causes, mortality, and treatment of COVID-19 will take decades to complete.
The ability to obtain vaccines, however, is an objective, immediate reality with strategic and military implications.
China knows it has not been able to supply as many doses as the U.S.
The U.S., the U.K., Israel, and India have produced and distributed vaccines faster than any other bloc.
The UK even managed to withhold vaccines from the European Union after Brexit.
Brazil, barely, managed to avoid embarrassment by playing both sides with India and China while trying to negotiate with the U.S.
These facts count as victories on the battlefield. They are undeniable and highly significant. The next time the UN meets to discuss pandemics, these countries will have something to say. The others will have to listen.